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| Afghan Energy, Chemical & Mining Industries resource for Renewable Energies, Irrigation & Sustainable Industries. |
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An agricultural project to irrigate fruit trees required a minimum of 7 MW of electricity and we roughly estimate the costs of using different methods to produce this electritity. - The power
consumption is for example :
If we
consider solar:
We will require
batteries if we decide to pump more than the required hours of sun available to
us. In any case we will have to have redundant power sources at each of the 20
pumping stations. It would be better to do this at a 15 hour stretch at a
Hydraulic power of 70-80KW which would reduce the price of the pumps and in turn
compensate for the added redundancy power source. Fuel will be required for this
added source out of the solar time zone or cloudy conditions. The number minimum
cost of solar panels will be presently $2.0/Wp which equates to (20 x 80KW x
solar factor 1.2 / 0.8 eff. of pump ) = 2.4MW for each of the 15 hours of
pumping.
Also each of the 114
stations require solar installations of 10 KW each which equates to
1.14MW
Solar
installation:
(2,400,000 +
1,140,000) x ($2 per Wp panel + $1.5 for inverters, wiring, fixtures,
electronics, batteries etc) = $12.4m
Redundancy will be
an added (20 x (100 kVA $15,000 ) + 114 x (15 kVA $3,000) )=
$0.64m
Together solar will
cost a minimum of $13m and will last at least 20 years with hardly any extra
costs except for 7 hours daily generator power. Many variations of this is
possible, however we have taken the minimum installation of solar. 7 hours
generators at $0.22/kW (0.3633 l/kWh and $0.6/l) is
estimated to be per year 0.22 x 90kw x 7hours x 20 stations x 30 days x 7 months
= $0.6m/yr
To install a solar
panel plant to include a polysilicon ingot to cells and to panels plant
producing 10MWp per year will cost $20m at the minimum for Afghanistan. Each Wp
will cost $0.7 to produce. This will save $5m and utilize 30% of the annual
production of the plant.
The
attached pdf file (0.05Mb) gives a more detailed calc. of the solar scenario.
where at 12 hours daily watering one would require 4 hours of generator
power. The total capital costs over 10 years is ($5.3/10 years plus $0.34m)
equates to $0.9m
If we
consider Natural Gas
We'll have to do a
3D seismic costing $3000/km2 for 100m2 costing $0.3m.
Drill down 3-4 km
and case with well head will cost $4m with pipeline and
install a 10MW
Deutz/Jenbacher used cogen plant costing $3m.
Filtering and
separation and spares will cost $1m.
Electrification
substations and 50km line at 6MV will cost $2m with
substations.
Total cost
$10m
The energy factor
for the Methane at an average volume of 85% is 37MJ/m3 which will produce at 35%
efficiency electricity at a relatively low cost of $0.04c over the 10 year short
life of the installation. ie $1.2m/yr ($1m costs and $0.2m interest and royalty)
used for 7 months of:
12 hours daily 90kW
at 20 stations and 4 hours of 144 stations at 10kw plus losses plus extras of
1.2 factor.
This equates to
6,000,000 kWh x $0.04 = $240,000.
The actual
electricity will cost us: $1.2m/6,000,000= $0,20/kW or
$1.2m/yr
therefore Estimated yearly costs is
$1.2m per
year.
If we
consider coal (estimated)
A coal fired boiler
will cost from china or europe with turbine including installation for 10Mw
$3m.
Electrification substations and
50km line at 6MV will cost $2m with substations.
cost of purchase and delivery of coal / tonne is
$60/tonne at 28GJ/tonne for black coal which will produce
$1.5/GJ or $1.5/GWs or $0.000015/kWs or
$0.054/kWh
Taking the efficiencies into consideration the actual
price will be about $0.07/kW.
Estimated yearly costs is ($70,000/GWh x 8GWh +
(approx $0.5m capital costs over 10 years))=
$1.06m/yr
If we consider
Diesel
Generator and
housing for an unused 6.2MW costs $1m. accessories and a possible co-gen $0.5m.
Electrification substations and 50km line at 6MV will cost
$2m with substations.
Consumption 0.29
Liters/kWh and at $0.55/Liter diesel oil over 7 months will cost (0.29 x 0.55 x
6,200 kW x 12hours x 30 days x 7 months) =
$2.5m/yr
Estimated yearly costs is ($2.5m + (approx $0.35m
capital costs over 10 years))=
$2.85m/yr
Conclusions:
Yearly cost
for the following: all taken over 10 years, however solar installation is
capable of 15 years, but has been considered for simplicity over 10
years.
Solar $0.9m/year
Natural
Gas $1.2m/year
Coal $1.06m/year
Diesel $2.85m/year
Out of all the
methods estimated, Coal fired electricity is the cheapest and the most "dirty".
The solar scenario estimates that we will eventually reach a discounted $2/Wp
for the quantity of panels that will order.
If we consider
imported electricity, we have to rely on the importer and the government, and
neither can be trusted to deliver on time for such a mission critical
enterprise. All functions have to be kept in-house.
Solar 20 years
lifetime and clean and reliable costs and easy installation with little
maintenance will probably win the day.
regards,
Naeem
Nawabi
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